Where does the market see the rate?
The market prices a hike with 18% probability. The rate after the meeting about 3.93% (+4 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 90% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.15% (+27 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 44% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.26% (+38 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 66% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.43% (+55 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 38% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.52% (+64 bp vs now)
The market prices a hike with 37% probability. The rate after the meeting about 4.61% (+73 bp vs now)
Computed from 30-day fed funds futures prices (CME, via Yahoo Finance) with a method similar to CME FedWatch. Market expectations, not a forecast or a Fed promise. Current range 3.75–4.00%, EFFR 3.88%. Fed calendar · updated
What will the Fed do on Oct 28?
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Oct 19 · prev 4.00%
The anchor for every dollar interest rate. Higher means pricier credit and less money in risk assets.
FRED · DFEDTARU · original source Federal Reserve
Oct 16 · prev 3.88%
The actual average rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.
FRED · EFFR · original source FRBNY
Oct 16 · prev 3.89%
The overnight repo rate against Treasuries. A spike means money is getting scarce.
FRED · SOFR · original source FRBNY
Oct 15 · prev 7.40%
The average US mortgage rate. Shows how the Fed rate reaches households.
FRED · MORTGAGE30US · original source Freddie Mac
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