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FREEKONOMIST
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Macro

Jobs.

A strong labour market lets the Fed hold rates, a weak one brings cuts closer.

Nonfarm payrolls
+29K

September 2026 · prev +133K

How many jobs the US added in a month. Out on the first Friday of the month.

1,01069437963-253Nov 1, 2020Sep 1, 2026
What it is and why it matters

What it is. How many jobs the US added in a month. Out on the first Friday of the month.

Why you care. One of the loudest reports: markets jump right after it. Lots of jobs means the Fed is in no rush to cut.

How to read the chart. Tall bars: a strong economy. Near zero or negative: the economy is slowing and cuts are closer.

FRED · PAYEMS · original source BLS

Unemployment rate
4.20%

September 2026 · prev 4.10%

The share of job seekers without work.

6.90%5.97%5.05%4.13%3.20%Nov 1, 2020Sep 1, 2026
What it is and why it matters

What it is. The share of job seekers without work.

Why you care. A fast rise in unemployment often marks the start of a recession. Then the Fed rushes to cut.

How to read the chart. A flat low line: all good. A half-point jump in a couple of months: a warning sign.

FRED · UNRATE · original source BLS

Jobless claims
199K

Oct 10 · prev 198K

How many people filed a first claim for unemployment benefits this week.

263244224204185May 31, 2025Oct 10, 2026
What it is and why it matters

What it is. How many people filed a first claim for unemployment benefits this week.

Why you care. Out every Thursday, so it is the first to show layoffs picking up.

How to read the chart. A steady rise: the job market is weakening. One-off spikes often come from holidays or weather.

FRED · ICSA · original source U.S. Dept. of Labor

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